Predictability and farming don’t exactly go hand in hand. Weather, geopolitics, commodity prices, and other factors make the grower’s business probably one of the toughest to forecast. In this article, I’m taking an in-depth look into pricing and valuation history for 12-row corn heads from Case IH, John Deere, Massey Ferguson, and New Holland as reported by dealers and auctions across North America from 2012 through summer of 2018. The 2018 new selling price is estimated based on new selling price trend averages in 2016 and 2017.
Crunching all these numbers produces a surprising price trend – or lack of a trend.
“Comparing values of 3-, 5-, and 8-year-old corn heads over the last seven years shows the 8-year-old heads holding steady near $40,000 when compared with the 3- and 5-year-old heads that have a larger spread in their valuations.”The valuation range for the 8-year-old heads has the smallest span of only $4,806 from the low of $39,008 in 2012 (2004 models) to the high of $43,814 in 2017 (2009 models). Conversely, the 5-year-old heads have the largest span of prices of $12,256. Their values ranged from $47,375 in 2012 (2007 models) to a high of $59,361 in 2014 (2009 models). So, while this may not indicate predictability, a relatively flat line like the one for 8-year-old corn heads here stands out. When considering your own corn heads, keep in mind that these are averages. Features like choppers, folding heads, contour sensors, and others are becoming more common. The prevalence of these features typically will push the average used values up. Keep this in mind as you compare your own experience and how you’re equipped.
