The crop’s been planted, the fields are full, and now everyone’s wondering: when’s this market going to give us a yield?
It’s no secret that the used equipment market has been a tough row to hoe, but we may just be nearing the bottom of this long market correction. At least, that’s what the data suggests, and when the data speaks, it’s like a good farm dog—you better listen.
According to Iron Solutions analysts, dealer cash percentages on advertised prices are signaling that we might be plowing our way to more stable ground. In fact, with over 52,000 data points representing more than $11 billion in machinery, we’ve unearthed some trends worth paying attention to.
Jon Wommack, Managing Guides Editor, recently joined Casey Seymour and Kyle O’Toole on the Moving Iron Podcast to discuss the current state of the used equipment market. As Casey put it: “The only bad decision was no deal at all.”
So, let’s break out the data and see what’s unfolding.
The Big Shift – One and Two-Year-Old Machines Take Over
If you want to see what’s really growing in the used equipment market, look at the one and two-year-old machines sprouting up everywhere.
Dealers have been finding creative ways to move these machines as they adjust to changes in inventory and pricing. With equipment values riding high for so long, some dealers are now facing a tough harvest—trying to get the best yield from their inventory.
Iron Solutions analysis shows that the average advertised price for Class 8 combines in Q3 of 2024 was around $500,000, but they’re actually selling for about $445,000. That’s an 11% difference. These trendlines are like a seasoned farmer reading the weather—when prices start dropping like that, it’s time to take notice.
Auction Values vs. Dealer Prices – The Growing Gap
The auction market is like a neighboring farm—what they do affects your yield. And right now, there’s a big gap between auction values and dealer asking prices. “We need to get a lot more strategic about where we own our equipment,” stated Casey Seymour in the latest Moving Iron Podcast.
As the gap between auction and dealer prices grows wider, it becomes harder for dealers to turn a profit without feeling the squeeze. This widening gap is more than just a blip on the radar—it’s like watching storm clouds roll in.
Iron Solutions data backs up what we are seeing on the retail side. Class 6 and Class 7 machines, in particular, are feeling the pressure. Dealers are likely being forced to adjust their pricing to keep up with auction values.
Data-Driven Decisions: The Only Way Forward
If you’re farming without a plan, you’re bound to miss the harvest. The same goes for equipment dealers—without data-driven decision-making, you’re risking a poor crop.
In the latest podcast, Jon touched on the importance of the IronGuides now containing new year value models which are giving dealers a better handle on trades and pricing. “This is the first fall guide we have ever had the new year model,” stated Seymour. The introduction of new tools for evaluating equipment is like getting the latest tractor model—more efficient, more precise, and better equipped to handle the challenges ahead.
Iron Solutions has significantly bolstered its offerings, recently enhancing the auction data available in its Comparables tool. Over the past few weeks, approximately 30,000 new pieces of auction data have been integrated, addressing user feedback and fulfilling the promise to improve the data pipeline. This upgrade ensures that the auction, retail, and advertised data in the Iron Guides platform is not only more comprehensive but also updated daily, providing users with the most current market insights every 24 hours. The continuous refinement of this tool underscores Iron Solutions’ commitment to delivering a more robust and precise dataset to its users.
In addition to the expanded auction data, Iron Solutions recently created an API for John Deere dealers. This API integrates the Comparables tool within Machine Finder Pro, making it easier for sales teams to access valuable market information.
Kyle O’Toole, Director of Used Equipment for C&B Operations, noted the impact: “It’s been great for our sales team…It’s just an all-in-one source, obviously available through Machine Finder Pro, which our salespeople are in every day. Having that tool integrated into a product that our sales team isn’t having to go out and search or spend extra hours on data to find has been super helpful for our team.” This integration allows sales teams to streamline their workflow by eliminating the need for multiple data sources.
The updated Comparables tool not only simplifies data access but also provides unparalleled flexibility in market analysis. Users can explore market trends across regions with just a few clicks, whether looking at auction activity from coast to coast or comparing data across agricultural zones, such as cattle country versus crop-growing areas. The tool’s ability to reconfigure results on the fly empowers dealers to make informed decisions in real time, whether they operate on the U.S.-Canadian border or across diverse agricultural markets.
Iron Solutions analysis shows combine values are nearly back to the same market levels we saw in 2020, and this might be the key to knowing when the correction will end. With proactive inventory visibility, dealers can anticipate shifts in the market before they find themselves with too much unsold equipment on their lot.
Is This the Bottom?
If there’s one thing a farmer knows, it’s that you don’t call the crop until you’ve walked the fields. We’re close, but is this the bottom of the used equipment market?
Only time will tell. But based on the data, it looks like we’re getting there. Dealers who are relying on data-driven strategies, staying mindful of auction values, and adjusting their pricing will be the ones to come out on top.
Proactive inventory visibility is essential for sales success. So, here’s the takeaway: keep watching those trendlines, stay informed, and make use of every digital tool at your disposal. The next few months are going to be crucial in shaping the future of the used equipment market, and the smartest dealers will be ready to harvest the results.
As we like to say in farming, the best fertilizer for your land is your own two feet walking it. And right now, the same goes for your business.